Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 14,505
2 New Jersey 11,880
3 Massachusetts 7,740
4 Connecticut 6,894
5 Rhode Island 6,729
6 Louisiana 5,702
7 District of Columbia 5,241
8 Michigan 3,723
9 Delaware 3,672
10 Illinois 3,296
11 Pennsylvania 3,251
12 Maryland 2,938
13 South Dakota 2,426
14 Colorado 2,251
15 Indiana 2,138
16 Georgia 2,093
17 Mississippi 1,921
18 Washington 1,770
19 Iowa 1,619
20 Nebraska 1,500
21 Nevada 1,473
22 Virginia 1,448
23 Florida 1,435
24 Vermont 1,350
25 Ohio 1,333
26 New Hampshire 1,318
27 Tennessee 1,314
28 New Mexico 1,269
29 Alabama 1,267
30 Utah 1,232
31 Missouri 1,112
32 California 1,071
33 Kansas 1,057
34 North Dakota 1,053
35 South Carolina 1,020
36 Idaho 984
37 Wisconsin 976
38 Arkansas 963
39 Kentucky 874
40 Arizona 862
41 Texas 844
42 North Carolina 822
43 Oklahoma 806
44 Maine 736
45 Wyoming 625
46 Minnesota 611
47 West Virginia 571
48 Oregon 534
49 Alaska 460
50 Hawaii 421
51 Montana 416
52 Puerto Rico 409

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Massachusetts 503
2 New York 427
3 Rhode Island 405
4 New Jersey 362
5 District of Columbia 232
6 Connecticut 197
7 Nebraska 185
8 Illinois 175
9 Maryland 164
10 Iowa 142
11 Delaware 128
12 Pennsylvania 126
13 Colorado 120
14 Michigan 108
15 South Dakota 108
16 Indiana 96
17 Mississippi 92
18 Kansas 90
19 Louisiana 89
20 Virginia 82
21 New Mexico 71
22 Georgia 66
23 Tennessee 62
24 Arkansas 57
25 North Dakota 54
26 Utah 51
27 New Hampshire 50
28 Nevada 49
29 Wisconsin 48
30 North Carolina 44
31 Minnesota 42
32 Ohio 41
33 Washington 41
34 Alabama 40
35 California 40
36 Puerto Rico 40
37 Florida 39
38 Kentucky 39
39 Arizona 37
40 Missouri 37
41 South Carolina 31
42 Texas 31
43 Oklahoma 25
44 Maine 20
45 Wyoming 20
46 Oregon 15
47 West Virginia 15
48 Idaho 13
49 Vermont 10
50 Hawaii 2
51 Alaska 1
52 Montana 1

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 853
2 New Jersey 660
3 Connecticut 522
4 Massachusetts 396
5 Louisiana 353
6 Michigan 327
7 District of Columbia 233
8 Rhode Island 202
9 Illinois 148
10 Pennsylvania 143
11 Maryland 131
12 Colorado 116
13 Indiana 116
14 Delaware 115
15 Washington 97
16 Georgia 84
17 Mississippi 74
18 Vermont 73
19 Nevada 66
20 Ohio 60
21 Virginia 51
22 Florida 49
23 Oklahoma 49
24 Kentucky 46
25 Missouri 45
26 Wisconsin 45
27 New Hampshire 44
28 New Mexico 44
29 Alabama 43
30 Minnesota 43
31 California 42
32 Kansas 40
33 Arizona 37
34 Maine 37
35 Iowa 35
36 South Carolina 32
37 Idaho 31
38 North Carolina 28
39 Nebraska 27
40 Tennessee 27
41 Texas 22
42 North Dakota 20
43 Oregon 20
44 West Virginia 18
45 Puerto Rico 16
46 Arkansas 15
47 Montana 13
48 Utah 12
49 Wyoming 12
50 South Dakota 11
51 Alaska 9
52 Hawaii 9

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 30
2 Connecticut 29
3 Massachusetts 26
4 New York 22
5 District of Columbia 17
6 Michigan 15
7 Louisiana 12
8 Rhode Island 10
9 Maryland 9
10 Colorado 8
11 Illinois 8
12 Delaware 7
13 Indiana 6
14 Minnesota 3
15 Mississippi 3
16 New Mexico 3
17 Pennsylvania 3
18 Vermont 3
19 Virginia 3
20 California 2
21 Iowa 2
22 Maine 2
23 Missouri 2
24 Nevada 2
25 New Hampshire 2
26 Ohio 2
27 Oklahoma 2
28 Washington 2
29 Arizona 1
30 Florida 1
31 Georgia 1
32 Kentucky 1
33 Nebraska 1
34 North Carolina 1
35 South Carolina 1
36 Texas 1
37 Wisconsin 1
38 Alabama 0
39 Alaska 0
40 Arkansas 0
41 Hawaii 0
42 Idaho 0
43 Kansas 0
44 Montana 0
45 North Dakota 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 South Dakota 0
49 Tennessee 0
50 Utah 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 95,244 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 55,359 2 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 38,901 3 99
Rockland New York 34,044 4 99
Marion Ohio 33,368 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 3,188 215 93
Richland South Carolina 1,893 442 85
Pierce Washington 1,451 589 81
York South Carolina 630 1272 59
Orange California 620 1286 59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 7,011 1 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 2 99
Terrell Georgia 1,993 3 99
Early Georgia 1,472 4 99
Nassau New York 1,413 5 99
Pierce Washington 52 655 79
Richland South Carolina 43 741 76
Davidson Tennessee 32 901 71
Orange California 12 1228 60
York South Carolina 11 1247 60

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons